Our concept of using any tariff-driven lows as buying opportunities comes down to yield results. From February to May, and supposedly through the coming summer, it is still relevant to buy out people's fears for global economic wars, at the particular moments when the crowd loses faith in peace deal settlements over time. The S&P 500 broad market barometer has been under remaining pressure on Friday, based on U.S. president Trump's reignition of trade concerns after he recommended a possible 50% tariff on EU goods for his negotiators and also threatened Apple to impose duties on all foreign-made iPhones.

"The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with... Our discussions with them are going nowhere!" Trump proclaimed on Truth Social just before the weekend. Weak demand at an auction of 20-year public bonds was also cited, so that fears prevailed even as a sweeping and very encouraging U.S. tax cut and spending bill cleared the House procedures to enter the Senate. The major Wall Street index slid to a re-test of the 5,750 area before the very end of the week. Yet the firm bulls, including our analyst team, were strongly aware that these were all cheap excuses, and the overall sentiment actually took a 180-degree turn as soon as Trump quite predictably agreed to delay his 50% trade tariffs threat against the EU bloc by another month to early July.

“I received a call today from Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, requesting an extension on the June 1st deadline on the 50% Tariff with respect to Trade and the European Union. I agreed to the extension — July 9, 2025 — It was my privilege to do so,” Trump updated his current view in a post on the same Truth Social. The U.S.-EU talks will “begin rapidly”, he added, while Mrs von der Leyen said she had a “good call” with Trump, so that Europe is now ready to advance talks “swiftly and decisively”. Isn't it a noticeable turn in rhetoric and a big step forward after all those boring phrases that talks were not progressing? As a result, the Wall Street S&P 500 index futures jumped by more than 1% immediately in the first trading hour to 5,850, and then added another 0.25% to 5,875 in Asian and European time. This means more than 100 basis points up already, and we have no doubt about a well-planned assault on the 6,000 psychologically important height, with the leadership of technological flagships like Google, Meta and Microsoft, as well as the e-commerce giants led by Amazon and the industrial sector as the most exposed to trading tensions, but now potentially the happiest one.

There is also a moderate positive shift on the interest rate side, as the U.S. Federal Reserve's governor Christopher Waller said last Thursday he saw a path to rate cuts "later this year", in case "we can get the tariffs down close to the 10% and then that’s all sealed, done and delivered somewhere by July, then we’re in good shape for the second half of the year, and then we’re in a good position to kind of move with rate cuts through the second half of the year". So, slowly and steadily wins this marathon stock race. We should also mention here that the US and China agreed to a de-escalation in May as well. But if the Chinese market is still subject to much volatility moves, and is still potentially problematic, the German DAX index is quietly hitting peaks in Europe again.